跨境资本流动:特点、趋势与影响

Cross Border Capital Flows:Characteristics,Trends,and Impacts

开放经济条件下,跨境资本流动对经济增长和金融稳定具有重要影响。2008年全球金融危机以来,跨境资本流动的速度、方向、构成与主体均发生了结构性变化,呈现全球跨境资本流动增速下滑、证券组合投资流动占比提升、非银行金融机构的跨境资金中介作用提升等特征。后疫情时代,全球加息潮与本国金融市场发展分别从拉动与推动层面进一步导致跨境资本短期流出与长期流入新兴经济体。在此期间,跨境资本流动在拓宽新兴市场国家资金来源与投资结构,提升其金融体系运行效率的同时,也增加了各国对外部金融环境变动的风险敞口,表现为证券组合投资占比提升引发的资本异常波动频率增加与非银行金融部门贷款的顺周期性促使金融脆弱性提升。未来,应增强跨境资本流动宏观审慎监管、优化非金融企业的融资环境、加深国际货币政策协调、推进中国金融双向开放的步伐并提升汇率弹性。

In an open economy,cross-border capital flows play an important role in economic growth and financial stability.Since the 2008 global financial crisis,structural changes have taken place in the speed,direction,and composition of cross-border capital flows around the world.This has been exemplified in a decline in the growth rate of global cross-border capital flows,a rise in the proportion of portfolio investment flows,and an expanded role for non-bank financial institutions as cross-border capital intermediaries.In the post-pandemic era,global interest rate hikes and the development of domestic financial markets have led to expanded short-term and long-term cross-border capital flows into and out from emerging economies.During this period,cross-border capital flows have broadened the funding sources and investment structures of emerging market economies and improved the operational efficiency of their financial systems.At the same time,for many countries,there has been an increase in the risk exposure to changes in the external financial environment.This has been reflected in the increased frequency of abnormal fluctuations in capital flows due to the rising proportion of securities portfolio investment and the procyclicality of loans from non-bank financial sectors.This in turn has promoted greater financial vulnerability.In the future,it will be necessary to strengthen macro prudential supervision of cross-border capital flows,optimize the financing environment for non-financial enterprises,and deepen international monetary policy coordination.It will also be necessary to boost the pace of two-way financial openness in China and improve exchange rate flexibility in order to prevent external risks and coordinate security and development.