人民币国际化是否促进了中国对外直接投资?——基于“一带一路”沿线53国的实证检验

Does RMB InternationalizationPromote ChineseOFDI?——An Empirical Test Based on the Experience of Countries Participating in the Belt and Road Initiative

党的二十大报告提出要“推动共建‘一带一路’高质量发展”。本文以“一带一路”为背景,选取沿线53个国家2009—2021年的年度数据,实证分析人民币国际化对中国OFDI的影响。基准回归结果表明:人民币国际化显著促进了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资,分组回归的结果显示该赋能作用在发展中国家和“一带”沿线国家中更为显著。进一步分析证明:汇率稳定度和资本账户开放度在人民币国际化赋能中国OFDI的过程中发挥的调节作用显著。鉴于此,本文建议继续稳慎推进人民币国际化进程,并依托“一带一路”倡议,不断优化对沿线国家直接投资的布局,同时动态协调汇率市场化、资本账户开放与人民币国际化,实现中国OFDI的可持续发展。

At its 2oth National Congress,the Communist Party proposed the promotion of high-quality development under the Belt and Road Initiative.This paper examines the impact of renminbi internationalization on China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),using annual data from 53 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative between 2009 and 2021.A baseline regression study shows that RMB internationalization has significantly boosted Chinese direct investment in the Belt and Road countries while a subgroup regression shows that the effect is even more significant in developing countries and countries along the"Belt".Further analysis demonstrates that exchange rate stability and capital account openness play a significant moderating role when RMB internationalization promotes China's OFDI.This paper suggests that China should continue to carry out RMB internationalization in a steady and cautious manner and optimize the distribution of direct investment in the countries along the routes included in the Belt and Road Initiative.At the same time,it is necessary to dynamically coordinate the marketization of the exchange rate,the continued opening of the capital account and RMB internationalization,so as to realize sustainable development of China's OFDI.