批判性地缘政治视角解读大国权力变迁

Critical Geopolitical Perspectives on Power Shifts among Great Powers

权力变迁时期大国势力范围的调整往往是诱发冲突的重要原因。既有研究未能提出和平调整势力范围的条件,且大部分研究忽视了衰退国家的战略选择。基于批判性地缘政治视角,可以发现当两个大国之间发生权力变迁时,冲突的发生与否取决于崛起国家势力范围的地缘政治条件以及衰退国家对地缘政治条件的理解。随着权力结构的变化,衰退国家会加重“地理想象”并夸大安全需求。在当前权力变迁的背景下,美国认为其安全取决于对欧亚大陆沿岸地区的主导权;美国对安全线的建构可能加剧权力变迁期间大国间的冲突风险。美国之所以将中国定义为“威胁”并不完全是由于国际结构变化的压力,也是由于美国对于安全的理解及安全线的划定方式。

Adjustments in the spheres of influence among great powers amid power shifts are often an important cause of conflicts.Previous studies have failed to suggest conditions for peaceful adjustment of spheres of influence,and have mostly ignored the strategic choices of declining states.This paper argues,based on critical geopolitical perspective,that when a power shifts between two great powers,the occurrence of conflict depends both on the geopolitical conditions of the rising state's sphere of influence and on the declining state's understanding of the geopolitical conditions.As the power structure changes,the declining state tends to increase its"geographical imagination"and exaggerate its security needs.In the context of the current power shift,the US believes that its security depends on the dominance over the coastal areas of Eurasia;its construction of security lines has exacerbated the risk of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region amid the power shift.It can be argued that US's defining China as a threat is not entirely due to the pressure of changing global structure,but rather the result of its understanding of security and the way it draws its security lines.