绿色发展下长三角地区水-能源-粮食-生态系统仿真和优化研究

Simulation and Optimization of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology System for Green Development in the Yangtze River Delta

通过构建绿色发展下水-能源-粮食-生态的系统动力学模型,模拟不同经济发展情景下长三角地区2020-2035年资源供需和生态环境质量的变化趋势,并设置优化路径进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)以保障经济可持续和绿色增长为目标,长三角地区经济应保持中速增长。(2)长三角地区资源供需指数逐年递减,水资源和粮食基本保持供需平衡;能源供需不平衡是其面临的最主要问题,且随经济发展愈发严峻;生态环境质量总体向好。(3)资源节约和科技创新是平衡资源供需的重要路径,环境保护路径对改善生态环境质量的作用最优,协调发展路径对资源供需和生态环境的调节作用明显优于其他四条路径,且推动水-能源-粮食-生态呈稳中向好态势。

By constructing the system dynamics model of water-energy-food-ecology for green development,this paper simulates the change trends of resource supply and demand and eco-environmental quality in the Yangtze River Delta from 2020 to 2035 under different economic development scenarios.And then,first,it comparatively analyzes the optimization paths.Results show that,with the goal of ensuring sustainable and green economic growth,the economy in the Yangtze River delta should maintain a moderate growth rate.Second,the resource supply and demand index is decreasing year by year.Water and food supply and demand are basically balanced.The imbalance between energy supply and demand is the most principal problem,which becomes more and more serious with economic growth.On the whole,the eco-environment quality presents a positive trend.Third,Resource conservation and technological innovation are important paths to balance resource supply and demand.The environmental protection path plays the best role in improving the eco-environment quality.The coordinated development path is obviously better than the other four paths in regulating resource supply and demand and eco-environment,and promotes the steady and good development of the water-energy-food-ecology system.