中国海洋船舶工业智能化时空分异及影响因素研究

Spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of intellectualization of China′s marine shipbuilding industry

智能制造是中国海洋船舶工业由大到强的主攻方向,是顺应新一轮科技革命和产业变革、重塑海洋船舶工业发展新优势的战略选择。采用模糊物元模型、核密度估计、标准差椭圆等方法,分析了2010—2018年中国海洋船舶工业智能化的时空分异及影响因素。结果表明:①研究期内中国海洋船舶工业智能化呈小幅上升趋势,由2010年的0.327上升到2018年的0.353,上升幅度为7.95%。中国海洋船舶工业智能化绝对差异呈现缩小趋势,但“强者更强”,地区间分布不均衡现象仍然存在。②中国海洋船舶工业智能化重心整体向西南方向迁移,分布呈现低值区向南收缩、中值区向北扩散、高值区由南北向中间延伸的趋势。③创新环境、人力资源、市场集中、金融发展和政府干预对中国海洋船舶工业智能化均具有显著解释力,各因子的解释力排序为:创新环境>金融发展>人力资源>政府干预>市场集中,影响因子交互作用类型均为双因子增强。

The main direction of marine shipbuilding industry in China from massive to sophisticate was intelligent manufacturing,which was a strategic choice to adapt to the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation and reshape the new advantages of marine shipbuilding industry.This paper used fuzzy matter element model,kernel density estimation,standard deviation ellipse to analyze spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of intellectualization of China′s marine shipbuilding industry from 2010 to 2018.The results showed that:①During the study period,Intellectualization of China′s marine ship industry showed a slight upward trend,rising from 0.327 in 2010 to 0.353 in 2018,with an increase rate of 7.95%.The absolute difference of intellectualization of China′s marine ship industry showed a narrowing trend,but the“strong were stronger”and the imbalance between regions still existed.②The intelligent center of gravity of China′s marine shipbuilding industry migrated to the southwest as a whole,and the distribution of intellectualization of China′s marine shipbuilding industry showed a trend of low value region shrinking to the south,the median value region spreading to the north and the high value region extending from south and north to middle.③Innovation environment,human resources,market concentration,financial development and government intervention had significant explanatory power on the intellectualization of China′s marine shipbuilding industry.The explanatory power of each factor was in the order of innovation environment>financial development>human resources>government intervention>market concentration,and the interaction type of influencing factors was double factor enhancement.