2000—2019年中日国际旅游的反向性、市场翻转及成因

The inverse,market reversal and causes of China and Japan tourism flow from 2000 to 2019

新世纪以来,世界旅游重心正在向亚太地区转移,中日国际旅游竞争更为激烈。以2000—2019年官方统计资料为依据,采用宏观分析与市场分析、实证分析与政策分析相结合的方法,分析了中日国际旅游的反向性及市场翻转现象。结果发现:①以2013年为分界点,中日国际旅游客流量及旅游收支呈现反向性,中国旅游贸易从顺差转向逆差且逆差迅速扩大;日本旅游贸易从逆差转向顺差且顺差不断扩大;②从主要国际客源市场的游客流向来看,2011年起客流转向出现明显的市场翻转,来自西欧、北美和澳大利亚的远程洲际游客,从偏向前往中国转向偏向日本旅游,并且该趋势仍在加强;韩国、泰国、新加坡、马来西亚等洲内市场,游客流向也从偏向入境中国转向偏向日本旅游;③从中日两国旅游互动来看,以2015年为分界点,中国出境日本旅游客流量增大,日本入境中国客流量减少,旅游互动呈现反向性;④产生此种国际旅游差额变化的反向性及主要客源市场的翻转,与两国旅游产业政策及环境卫生条件、旅游服务质量有关。因此,调整旅游产业政策、改善环境与卫生条件,提高旅游服务质量,将成为中国建成世界旅游强国的重要举措。

Since the beginning of the new century,the Asia-Pacific area has become the center attention for world tourism.The tourism from China and Japan were now in a more competitive position than ever before.This paper adopteda combination of macro,market,empirical,and policy analysis to examine the reverse nature of China-Japan international tourism as well as the phenomenon of market reversal using 20 years′worth of official data.The results showed that:①Taking 2013 as the dividing point,the international passenger flow and tourism income?expenditure are reversed.China′s tourism trade has turned from surplus to deficit,and the deficit has expanded rapidly.Japan′s tourism trade has shifted from deficit to surplus,and the surplus has continued to expand.②From the perspective of tourist flow in the main international market,there has been an obvious market reversal since 2010.The travel preferences from the intercontinental market including western Europe,North America and Australia have shifted from China to Japan and so does the intracontinental market including South Korea,Thailand,Singapore,and Malaysia,and this trend is still strengthening.③Taking 2015 as the dividing point,the number of Chinese tourists entering Japan has increased,the number of Japanese tourists entering China has decreased,and that tourism interaction has shown a reverse nature.④The inverse nature of this change in the international tourism balance and the market reversal in the main source markets are related to the tourism industry policies,environmental health conditions and tourism service quality of the two countries.Undoubtedly,changing the tourism industry policy,improving the environment and sanitary conditions,improving the quality of tourism services are important measures for China to become a world tourism power.