基于灰色马尔科夫的安徽省卫生总费用预测研究

Prediction of Total Health Expenditure in Anhui Province Based on Grey Markov

为核算安徽省卫生总费用,预测安徽省卫生总费用及构成变化趋势,了解安徽省卫生筹资规模、结构现状和未来发展情况。利用2010—2018年安徽省卫生总费用、政府、社会、卫生支出和GDP总值等相关数据指标,通过构建灰色GM(1,1)模型并建立马尔科夫链进一步修正,分析和中长期预测2010—2025年安徽省卫生总费用及构成现状及变化趋势。发现安徽省卫生总费用占GDP比例较低,卫生消费弹性系数较高,筹资机构较合理,个人卫生支出占比持续下降。表明基于马尔科夫修正的灰色GM(1,1)模型中长期预测安徽省卫生费用拟合效果较好,安徽省卫生总费用及构成未来将继续保持上升趋势,卫生资源分配得到优化。

To calculate the total health expenditure in Anhui Province,predict the total health expenditure and its composition trend,and understand the current situation and future development of the scale and structure of health financing in Anhui Province,a grey GM(1,1)model was constructed based on relevant data indicators such as total health expenditure,government,social and health expenditure and GDP of Anhui Province from 2010 to 2018,and Markov chain was established to further modify it,and the status quo and trend of the total health expenditure and its composition in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2025 were analyzed and predicted in the medium and long term.It found that the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP in Anhui Province was relatively low,and the elasticity coefficient of health consumption was higher.Financing institutions were more reasonable,and the proportion of personal health expenditure continued to decline.The results showed that the grey GM(1,1)model based on Markov correction had a good fitting effect in the medium and long term prediction of health expenditure in Anhui Province.The total health expenditure and its composition will continue to rise in the future,and the allocation of health resources will be optimized.