基于后悔理论的西南油气田含硫管道运行风险评价研究

Research on Operational Risk Assessment of Sulfur-containing Pipeline in Southwest Oil and Gas Field Based on Regret Theory

为了对西南油气田含硫管道运行风险进行合理评价,克服传统评价方法存在的主观性过强问题,引入了一种基于组合赋权和后悔理论的综合性评价方法。首先根据西南油气田含硫管道的基本特点确定风险评价指标体系,使用改进层次分析法和熵权法分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,以此为依据建立基于后悔理论的含硫管道风险评估模型。以西南油气田某含硫管道为例进行案例评价,并将基于后悔理论的评价结果与多种评价方法进行对比,以验证基于后悔理论的含硫管道运行风险评价结果的准确性。研究表明,基于后悔理论的含硫管道运行风险评价结果与其他类型成熟模型的评价结果基本一致且更加接近实际风险值,该种风险评价方法可以克服传统方法存在主观性过强的问题。

In order to conduct a reasonable evaluation of the operational risks for sulfur-containing pipelines in Southwest Oil and Gas Field,and to overcome the excessive subjectivity of traditional evaluation methods,a comprehensive evaluation method based on combination weighting and regret theory is introduced.Firstly,the risk assessment index system is determined based on the basic characteristics of sulfur-containing pipelines in the Southwest Oil and Gas Field.The subjective and objective weights of each index are determined using the improved analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,respectively.Based on this,a sulfur-containing pipeline risk assessment model based on the regret theory is established.A sulfur-containing pipeline in the Southwest Oil and Gas Field is taken as an example for case evaluation,and the evaluation results based on the regret theory are compared with the evaluation results of various types of evaluation methods to verify the accuracy of the operational risk assessment results of sulfur-containing pipelines based on the regret theory.Research shows that the risk assessment results of sulfur-containing pipeline operation based on the regret theory are basically consistent with those of other types of mature models.At the same time,the assessment results based on the regret theory are closer to the actual risk value,and this risk assessment method can overcome the problem of excessive subjectivity in traditional methods.