基于季节性叠加趋势法的云南省干旱预测研究

Application of seasonal superimposed trend method to drought prediction in Yunnan Province

近年来,随着云南省干旱发生的频次不断增加,影响范围不断扩大,开展干旱预测模型研究对云南省具有重要意义。分别选取云南省的石林、会泽、楚雄、元谋、红塔、隆阳、广南、瑞丽、屏边、景洪10个县市区内10个建站超30 a的基本水文站逐日实测降雨资料,基于季节性叠加趋势方法建立预测模型并计算得到预测数值,与各水文站实测降雨数值进行对比分析,探讨季节性叠加趋势模型在云南省不同区域干旱预测中的应用效果。结果表明:严重干旱区4站中有3站能准确反映干旱趋势,仅有1站能准确反映干旱程度;中度干旱区3站中有2站能准确反映干旱趋势,不能准确反映干旱程度;轻度干旱区3站中有2站能准确反映干旱趋势,仅有1站能准确反映干旱程度;总体来说,预测模型结果能较为准确反映干旱趋势,但对干旱严重程度反映效果有待提升。

In recent years,with the increasing frequency of drought occurrence and the expanding scope of impact in Yunnan Province,it is of great significance to carry out research on drought prediction models for real-time,dynamic,and objective analysis and prediction of drought in Yunnan Province.Therefore,this paper collected daily measured rainfall data of 10 basic hydrological stations in 10 counties and cities in different regions of Yunnan Province,including Shilin,Huize,Chuxiong,Yuanmou,Hongta,Longyang,Guangnan,Ruili,Pingbian,and Jinghong,with stations over 30 years.Then the papere stablished prediction model and calculated predicted value by seasonal superimposed trend method.Comparing the calculated predicted values with the measured rainfall values of each hydrological station to explore the application effect of seasonal superimposed trend model in drought prediction in different regions of Yunnan Province.The results showed that three of the four stations in severe drought areas can accurately reflect the drought trend,while only one station can accurately reflect the drought degree.Two of the three stations in moderately arid areas can accurately reflect the drought trend,but cannot accurately reflect the drought degree.Two of the three stations in lightly arid areas can accurately reflect the drought trend,while only one station can accurately reflect the drought degree.Overall,the prediction results can accurately reflect the drought trend,but the effect on reflecting the severity of drought is moderate.