阿斯塔纳国际金融中心崛起对中国的影响及监管对策——基于系统性金融风险视角

The Influence on the Rising of Astana International Financial Center on China and Its Countermeasures form the Perspective of Systemic Financial Risks

自哈萨克斯坦议会2015年通过相关法案以来,阿斯塔纳国际金融中心(AIFC)的筹建正在稳步推进,预计将成为世界最大的国际金融中心之一。此举不但有助于促进哈萨克斯坦经济发展,而且也将助推中国“一带一路”建设。哈萨克斯坦AIFC的建立与中国“一带一路”倡议的契合便是欧洲人民币的诞生。实证与规范分析均表明大量的欧洲人民币的产生将对中国系统性金融风险产生溢出效应,如国际资本流动风险增加、金融替代、货币政策独立性弱化与虹吸效应等。为了达到有效监管目的,阿斯塔纳国际金融服务监管委员会(AFSA)、中国银保监会、哈萨克斯坦国家银行三个监管主体应通过垂直监管与交叉监管两种方式进行相机约束。

Since the President of Kazakhstan signed the relevant bill in 2015,the establishment of the Astana International Finance Center(AIFC)is steadily advancing and is expected to become one of the world's largest international financial centers.This move will not only promote the economic development of Kazakhstan,but also boost China's"Belt and Road"construction.The alignment of Kazakhstan's AIFC establishment and China's Belt and Road Initiative is the birth of the European RMB.Both empirical and normative analysis show that the emergence of a large number of European RMB will have spillover effects on China's systemic financial risks,such as increased risk of international capital flows,financial substitution,weakened monetary policy independence,siphon effect and so on.In order to achieve the purpose of effective supervision,the three regulatory bodies of the Astana International Financial Services Supervision Committee(AFSA),the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission,and the National Bank of Kazakhstan should conduct restraint accordingly through vertical supervision and cross-supervision.