基于异质主体认知及评估的大群体方案调整方法

Alternatives Adjustment Method of Large Group Based on the Cognition and Evaluation of Heterogeneous Members

【目的/意义】社交媒体的开放性拓宽了公众对应急事件的信息收集和获取渠道,公众参与社会治理的呼吁使得引入公众行为数据辅助决策非常重要;同时,对庞大、良莠不齐的信息进行价值评估有助于识别关键信息和重要人群,使得基于群体智慧下的决策更具科学性;其次,成员权重对群体决策影响重大,客观、科学的权重确定方法使得决策结果更具合理性。【设计/方法】针对大群体应急决策中环境复杂及公众参与度较低的问题,从公众辅助决策视角提出了基于个体模糊表达衡量信息价值及基于序数信息综合度量群体间的距离方法,从而提出一种基于认知特性和表达能力上的个体权重确定及群体智慧下的方案调整方法。【结论/发现】以COVID-19案例展开模拟,并通过与现有文献在不同层面的对比分析验证方法的可行性和优越性,为公众–专家协同决策问题提供理论与方法支持。

[Purpose/Significance]Public information collection and access to emergency events are broadened by social media’s openness,and the public’s call for participation in social governance enables public behavior data assist decision-making.Meanwhile,evaluating the value of large and mixed information can help identify key message and critical people,and make decisions based on group wisdom more scientific;secondly,member weights have a significant impact on group decision-making,and an objective and scientific weighting method enables more reasonable decision-making results.[Design/Methodology]To tackle the issues of complex environment and lower public participation in large group emergency decision-making,a method is proposed from the perspective of public-assisted decision-making based on individual fuzzy expressions to measure the information value and ordinary information to integrate the inter-group distance,thus methods are proposed for determining individual weights based on cognitive features and expression ability,and adjusting alternatives under collective wisdom.[Conclusions/Findings]COVID-19 case is carried out as a scenario,and the feasibility and superiority of methods are verified through comparative analysis with existing literature at different levels to provide theoretical and methodological support for public-expert collaborative decision-making problems.