基于分位数回归的天山1号冰川径流变化分析

Analysis of runoff and climate change of No.1 glacier in Tianshan Mountains based on quantile regression

为研究天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的径流变化特点,利用1989~2017年1号冰川水文点以及大西沟气象站的径流和气象数据,使用分位数回归方法分析了冰川径流随时间的变化趋势以及与气候变化的响应关系.结果表明,1号冰川年径流量序列在不同分位数水平下保持一致性,随时间的迁移呈现出上升趋势;年径流量序列与气温有明显的响应关系,径流量随温度的升高而有所增加;随着降水量的增加,年径流量序列在低分位点处有上升趋势,在高分位点处则呈下降趋势;气温和降水对冰川径流的显著性并不一致,气温对冰川径流在绝大多数分位点下影响显著,相反,由于冰川区的降水主要以固态为主,降水对冰川径流的影响并不明显.

In order to study the characteristics of runoff variation of Glacier No.1 at the source of the Urumqi River in Tianshan Mountains,used the runoff and meteorological data of Glacier No.1 and Daxigou meteorological station from 1989 to 2017,the quantile regression method was used to analyze the variation trend of glacier runoff over time and its response to climate change.The results showed that the annual runoff series of Glacier No.1 was consistent under different quantile levels,and presented an increasing trend with time.The annual runoff series had an obvious response relationship with temperature,and the runoff increased with the increase of temperature.With the increase of precipitation,the annual runoff series showed an upward trend at the low points and a downward trend at the high points.The significance of air temperature and precipitation on glacier runoff was not consistent,and the influence of air temperature on glacier runoff was significant at most locative sites.On the contrary,since the precipitation in glacier area was mainly solid,the influence of precipitation on glacier runoff was not obvious.