基于证据理论的支挡型黄土高陡边坡稳定性评价

Stability evaluation of supported high and steep loess slope based on D-S evidential reasoning

为准确评价高陡边坡的稳定性,以黄延高速公路高陡边坡为依托工程,采用D-S证据理论建立支挡型黄土高陡边坡安全评价指标框架体系,进一步提出了考虑支挡结构的高陡边坡稳定性评价方法.采用Python编程软件对监测的抗滑桩与高陡边坡水平位移历史数据进行迭代和反演计算,得到边坡变化过程中各参数随时间变化的动态变化规律,实现对边坡的安全预警.根据安全评价结果,目标边坡处于安全状态的概率为73.25%,处于基本安全的状态的概率为22.99%.结果表明:D-S证据理论可对高陡边坡各指标间的一致性和冲突性进行定量衡量,并使各指标能够真实反映高陡边坡的特征;基于证据理论的评价模型所得结果与工程实际相吻合.该研究为同类边坡的安全评价提供了新的途径.

To accurately evaluate the stability of steep slopes,with the Huangyan Expressway steep slope engineering as the basis,a safety evaluation index framework system for support-type loess steep slopes was established using the D-S evidential reasoning.Furthermore,a stability evaluation method for steep slopes considering the support structure was proposed.Python programming software was used to iteratively and inversely calculate the historical data of the monitored horizontal displacement of the anti-slide pile and the steep slope,and the dynamic variation rules of each parameter during the slope change process were obtained,achieving safety early warning for the slope.According to the safety evaluation results,the probability of the target slope being in a safe state is 73.25%,and the probability of being in a basically safe state is 22.99%.The results show that the D-S evidence theory can quantitatively measure the consistency and conflict between various indicators of steep slopes and make each indicator truly reflect the characteristics of the steep slope.The results obtained from the evaluation model based on the evidence theory are consistent with the engineering reality.This study provides a new approach for the safety evaluation of similar slopes.