中美能源价格波动对中国进出口贸易的差异化影响研究

Research on the Diff erential Impact of Energy Price Fluctuations between the US and China on China’s Import and Export Trade

中美能源价格差的客观存在,既会形成国内生产的一种比较优势,又会影响我国对美国的出口贸易。本文选取中国与美国1990—2021年的面板数据为样本,基于比较优势理论,采用国家面板PPML模型展开中国对美国出口比较优势的研究。研究发现:中美能源价格差异产生的比较优势对中国出口美国贸易额影响为正,但并不显著;中国能源利用率的提高会产生不显著的负影响,而中国相对劳动力生产率的提高会显著促进中国出口美国贸易;中国在高能耗“污染类”产品生产上具有比较优势,成为“污染类”产品的出口国。

The objective existence of the diff erences in energy prices between China and the US will form both a kind of comparative advantage in domestic production and aff ect China’s export trade to the US.This paper selects the panel data of China and the US from 1990 to 2021 as samples,based on the theory of comparative advantage,and uses the national panel PPML model to develop a study on the comparative advantage of China’s exports to the US.The study fi nds that the comparative advantage arising from the diff erences in energy prices between China and the US has a positive but insignifi cant impact on China’s export trade to the US;an increase in China’s energy utilization rate has an insignifi cantly negative impact,while an increase in China’s relative labor productivity signifi cantly boosts China’s export trade to the US;China has a comparative advantage in the production of energy-intensive polluting products and becomes an exporter of polluting products.