基于停电窗口模式的停电计划优化及风险智能评估方法研究与应用

Research and Application of Blackout Plan Optimization and Intelligent Risk Assessment Method Based on Blackout Window Mode

对基于停电窗口模式的停电计划优化及风险智能评估方法进行了研究,对停电计划优化方法、实时运行风险评估和风险控制辅助决策及其实例分析这三个方面进行了理论分析。运用电气装置故障率分级对停电计划进行优化,再选择随机森林的运行风险评估方法,获得运行风险判定结果。最后采用网络重构的方法进行运行风险控制,并用算例结果表明可行性,能有效提高方式人员的工作效率且符合可持续发展。

The power outage plan optimization and intelligent risk assessment methods based on the power outage window mode are studied.The three aspects of power outage plan optimization method,real-time operation risk assessment and risk control auxiliary decision-making and case analysis are analyzed.The failure rate of electrical installations was used to optimize the power outage plan,and then the operation risk assessment method of random forest was selected to obtain the operation risk judgment results.Finally,the operation risk control is carried out by the network reconstruction method,and the feasibility is shown by the example study,which can effectively improve the work efficiency of the mode personnel and conform to sustainable development.