阶段性减免企业养老保险缴费政策的宏观稳定效应、机制与异质性影响研究

Study on the Macroeconomic Stability Effect,Mechanism and Heterogeneous Impact of Temporary Reduction of Enterprise Pension Insurance Contribution Policy

2020年我国首次使用阶段性减免企业养老保险缴费政策应对疫情带来的经济冲击,为实现“六稳”与“六保”发挥了积极作用,而本文进一步揭示了其政策效应与机制。本文通过构建一个包含社保部门的TANK-DSGE模型,对其政策的宏观稳定效应与作用机制进行了量化评估和检验,并在人口老龄化环境下对该政策进行了敏感度分析。本文主要结论为:阶段性减免企业养老保险缴费政策对经济有着较强的短期刺激作用,稳就业的政策精准性较好,但在中长期也存在抑制投资和扩大养老保险基金收支缺口等政策成本;其政策作用路径包括利率、通胀、工资和劳动力投入;虽然退休人员家庭对政策的反应存在异质性,但影响并不显著;老龄化环境下,政策刺激的短期效果增强,但其政策成本也更高,工资和劳动力投入的作用机制得到增强,通胀与利率的作用机制被弱化,退休人员政策反应的异质性更强;从政策乘数来看,在老龄化环境中,该政策的“稳增长”和“稳就业”效果均更好。当前我国经济正面临“三重压力”,阶段性减免企业养老保险缴费政策或可再度发挥稳定经济的重要作用。

In 2020,China used the temporary reduction of enterprise pension insurance contribution policy for the first time to cope with the economic impact brought about by the COVID-19,and played an active role in priorities and stability in six areas for steady economic momentum.However,its policy effect and mechanism still need to be further revealed.In this paper,a TANK-DSGE model including the social security sector is constructed,the policy macroeconomic stability effects and policy mechanisms are quantitatively evaluated and tested,and the sensitivity of the policy is analyzed in the context of population aging.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:the policy of reduction of enterprise pension insurance contributions has a strong short-term stimulus effect on the economy,and the policy accuracy of stabilizing employment is better.However,there are also policy costs in the medium and long term,such as inhibiting investment and expanding the gap between income and expenditure of endowment insurance fund.This policy mainly affects output and employment through interest rate,inflation,wage and labor factor input.The household consumption of retirees does not decrease due to the impact of the policy.The mechanism of the heterogeneity of consumption policy does not play a major role.In the policy environment of deep aging,the stimulus effect of the policy on output and employment increases in the short term,but the downward trend is larger in the medium and long term.In the aging environment,the action mechanism of wage and labor factor input is strengthened,while the action mechanism of inflation and interest rate is weakened,and the consumption of retirees is more strongly stimulated by policy.From the perspective of policy multiplier,the policy has better effects on"stable growth"and"stable employment"in deep aging environment.At present,China's economy is facing"triple pressure",and the policy of reducing enterprise endowment insurance contribution may play the role of"stabilizing growth"again.