2014-2017年重庆市移动百度指数HIV搜索量与新报告HIV感染数的关系

Relationship between the number of HIV searches in Chongqing mobile Baidu index and the number of newly reported HIV infections from 2014 to 2017

目的 探讨2014-2017年重庆市移动百度指数艾滋病病毒(HIV)搜索量与新报告HIV感染数的关系。方法 在百度搜索引擎中,搜索将2014-2017年重庆市HIV作为关键词的移动搜索指数的月度平均值,与国家公共卫生数据中心发布的2014-2017年重庆市月度新报告HIV感染数作为时间序列数据,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型、格兰杰(Granger)因果关系分析两者的关系。结果 共48组时间序列数据纳入研究,得到两列数据周期性不明显,但呈现平稳、联动关系特征且为非随机游走序列,百度HIV移动搜索指数对新报告HIV感染数有脉冲响应、时间上影响3期(3个月),3期后逐渐平稳,其中HIV移动搜索指数是新报告HIV感染数的原因,反之不成立,两者统计上呈现单向的因果关系。结论 2014-2017年重庆市HIV移动搜索指数对新报告HIV感染数有先行提示作用,可反映HIV感染数量。

Objective To explore the relationship between the number of HIV searches in the mobile Baidu indexand the number of newly reported HIV infections in Chongqing city from 2014-2017.Methods In the Baidu search engine,the monthly average of the mobile search index of HIV as a keyword in Chongqing city from 2014 to 2017 was searched,and the monthly number of newly reported HIV infections in Chongqing city from 2014 to 2017 released by the National Public Health Data Center was used as time series data to construct a vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality to analyze the relationship between the two.Results A total of 48 sets of time series data were included in the study.The 2 columns of data were not periodically periodic,but showed a stable,linkage relationship and non-random walking sequence.The Baidu HIV mobile search index had an impulse response to the number of newly reported HIV infections,with a temporal impact of 3 periods(3 months),which gradually stabilizes after the third period.The HIV mobile search index was responsible for the number of newly reported HIV infections,and vice versa did not hold,with a statistically one-way causality.Conclusion The HIV mobile search index in Chongqing city from 2014 to 2017 has a prior indication of the number of newly reported HIV infections,which can reflect the number of HIV infections.