阿图什市日均气温与呼吸系统疾病日住院人次的时间序列研究

Time-series study on daily mean temperature and daily respiratory hospital admissions in Atushi

目的分析阿图什市日均气温对呼吸系统疾病日住院人次的影响。方法收集2016—2019年阿图什市呼吸系统疾病患者住院病例资料及同期气象和大气污染物数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(distribution lag non-linear model,DLNM)分析日均气温对呼吸系统疾病日住院人次的影响及滞后效应。结果日均气温与呼吸系统疾病日住院人次呈"J"型关系,住院风险最低温度为23℃。总人群在极低温、一般低温时滞后0~14 d下对呼吸系统疾病日住院人次累积效应的RR值及95%CI分别为2.32(1.55~3.47)和2.09(1.46~3.00),两者均在当天时住院风险达到最大,且随着滞后日增加住院风险呈先下降后增加再下降趋势,滞后天数均为2 d。在亚组分析中,极低温、一般低温对女性和<16岁人群呼吸系统疾病住院风险的影响较大。极高温、一般高温对总人群及不同亚组中均未表现出明显的健康风险及滞后效应。结论低温会造成呼吸系统疾病住院风险增加,早期呈明显急性影响,且存在滞后效应,女性和<16岁人群是敏感人群。

Objective To analyze the effect of daily mean temperature on daily respiratory hospital admissionsin Atushi.Methods The data of inpatient cases of respiratory diseasesin Atushi from 2016 to 2019 and the data of meteorology and atmospheric pollutants during the same period were collect,and the effects and lag effects of daily mean temperature on daily respiratory hospital admissions were analyzed by the distribution lag non-linear model(DLNM).Results There was a"J"shaped relationship between daily average temperature and daily respiratory hospital admissions,and the minimum temperature of hospitalization risk was 23℃.The cumulative RR and the 95%CI of the total population in extremely low temperature and general low temperature in the lag of 0-14 days for respiratory hospital admissions were 2.32(1.55-3.47)and 2.09(1.46-3.00),respectively.The hospitalization risks of the two reached the maximum on the same day.With the increase of lag days,the hospitalization risks showed a trend of first decreasing,then increasing,and then decreasing,and the lag days were all two days.The subgroup analysis showed that extremely low temperature and general low temperature had greater impact on the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among females and people aged≤15 years old.The extremely high temperature and general high temperature did not show significant health risks or lagging effects on the overall population and different subgroups.Conclusion The low temperature increases the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases,it has obviously acute effect in the early stage and has lag effect,and females and people aged≤15 years old are sensitive people.