中国棉花价格分析与预测

Analysis and prediction of China’s cotton price

随着新冠疫情暴发和美国非法制裁新疆棉等事件的发生,中国农产品流动性不断趋紧,致使棉花价格波动呈现出非理性特点。从外部性因素和生产成本变化两个视角入手,以2006—2022年国内棉花价格CCINDEX3128B月度数据为样本对中国棉花价格波动进行分析,同时利用ARIMA模型对国内棉花价格波动短期趋势进行预测,模型预测的相对误差为1.71%。结果表明:2022年下半年中国棉花价格的高位震荡状态存在一定合理性,但受国际棉花价格变化、新棉采收、流动性趋紧等因素影响,预期未来棉花总体呈现供过于求的格局,棉花价格存在一定的下行压力。

With the outbreak of COVID-19 and the American illegal sanctions against cotton in Xinjiang,the liquidity of China’s agricultural products has become increasingly tense,resulting in irrational price volatility of cotton.From the perspectives of external factors and production cost changes,this paper analyzes the volatility of China’s cotton price with the monthly data of CCINDEX3128B of domestic cotton price from 2006 to 2022 as the sample,and predicts the short-term trend of domestic cotton price volatility by using ARIMA model.The relative error of the model prediction is 1.71%.The results show that the high volatility of China’s cotton prices in the second half of 2022 is reasonable to some extent,but due to the factors such as changes in international cotton prices,new cotton harvesting,and tense liquidity,it is expected that the overall supply of cotton will exceed demand in the future,and cotton price will have a certain downward pressure.