RCEP外需影响下中国出口隐含碳驱动因素及关键路径研究

Research on the Driving Factors and Key Paths of China's Carbon Emissions Under the Influence of RCEP External Demand

基于EORA26世界投入产出数据库,采用多区域投入产出模型测算分析2012—2016年中国对RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)地区的出口隐含碳,通过结构分解分析和结构路径分解考察了中国对RCEP地区出口隐含碳变动主要因素和关键路径。研究结果表明,中国对RCEP地区出口隐含碳呈下降趋势,主要驱动因素是中国国内产业关联效应、国内生产部门的碳排放强度效应和RCEP区域最终需求规模效应;而中国与世界其他经济体的产业关联效应和RCEP区域最终需求来源地结构效应则促进了中国对RCEP地区出口隐含碳的增长。建议继续降低国内生产部门的碳排放强度和优化国内中间生产结构,加快外源技术引进,针对关键路径各项因素采取上下游综合治理的措施。

Based on the EORA26 world input-output database,the MRIO model was used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission embodied in China's exports to the RCEP region from 2012 to 2016.The main factors and key paths of carbon emission change in China's exports to the RCEP region was examined through structural decomposition analysis and structural path decomposition.The research results show that the carbon emission embodied in China's exports to the RCEP region is on a downward trend.The main driving factors for the sharp decline are China's domestic industry linkage effect,the carbon emission intensity effect of China's domestic production sector,and the final demand scale effect in RCEP region.Industrial linkage effect between China and other economies in the world and the final demand source structure effect in the RCEP region can promote the growth of carbon emission embodied in China's exports to the RCEP region.China should reduce the carbon emission intensity of the domestic production sector,optimize the domestic intermediate production structure,speed up the introduction of foreign technologies and take comprehensive upstream and downstream measures for various factors on the key path.