成渝中线高速铁路功能定位及运输需求研究

A Study on Functional Orientation and Transport Demand of the Second Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway

成渝中线高速铁路是成渝地区双城经济区标志性项目,与成渝高速铁路、成遂渝铁路等共同构成成渝间多通道、多径路的区域复杂路网。本文采用定性和定量相结合的研究手段,综合技术标准、运输能力、路网衔接关系等因素,剖析成渝中线高速铁路在区域路网中的功能定位,通过对标世界级城市群,研判成渝双城经济圈经济发展潜力,把握区域出行需求强度;以“四阶段法”为理论基础,运用线性回归、时间序列、弹性系数、logit模型等多种数理方法合理预测项目运量水平,为项目的快速推进提供科学依据。

The Second Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway is a landmark project of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.It,together with Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway,Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing Railway and other railways,forms a regional complex railway network with multiple passages and routes connecting Chengdu and Chongqing.By combining the qualitative and quantitative research methods,this paper analyzes the functional orientation of the Second Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway in the regional railway network from technical standards,transport capacity,railway network connection and other relevant factors.It studies and judges the economic development potential of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle by comparing it with world-class urban agglomerations,so as to identify the intensity of regional travel demand.Based on the theory of“four-stage method”,this paper reasonably predicts the traffic volume of this project by multiple mathematical methods,e.g.linear regression,time series,elastic coefficient and logit model,in order to provide a scientific basis for the rapid construction of this project.