数字普惠金融与居民消费——基于商贸流通高质量发展的中介作用

Digital Inclusive Finance and Household Consumption—Intermediary Role Based on High Quality Development of Commercial Circulation

基于2013—2020年我国31个省份的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应检验,探究数字普惠金融对居民消费的影响,检验数字普惠金融通过推动商贸流通高质量发展影响居民消费的内在机理。结果显示:数字普惠金融能够显著促进居民消费水平提升,在考虑内生性和稳健性问题后依然成立;数字普惠金融能够通过推动商贸流通高质量发展促进居民消费水平提升;商贸流通高质量发展在数字普惠金融影响城镇居民消费水平过程中发挥着部分中介作用,在数字普惠金融影响农村居民消费水平过程中未能发挥中介作用。提出提升数字普惠金融水平、推动数字普惠金融与商贸流通协同发展、加强对农村地区的数字基础设施建设、金融知识普及与金融支持规模等政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2013 to 2020,a two-way fixed-effects model and a mediated-effects test are used to explore the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents'consumption and test the intrinsic mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting residents'consumption by promoting the high-quality development of trade circulation.The results show that,firstly,digital inclusive finance can significantly promote the increase of residents'consumption level,which still holds after considering the endophytism and robustness issues;secondly,digital inclusive finance can promote the increase of residents'consumption level by promoting the high-quality development of trade circulation;thirdly,the high-quality development of trade circulation plays a partial mediating role in the process of digital inclusive finance influencing the consumption level of urban residents,but fails to play a mediating role in the process of digital inclusive finance affecting the consumption level of rural residents.Therefore,this paper puts forward policies and recommendations to enhance the level of digital inclusive finance,promote the synergistic development of digital inclusive finance and trade circulation,strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure,the popularization of financial knowledge and the scale of financial support for rural areas.