农业高质量发展与农业水足迹的脱钩关系研究——基于黄河流域9省的实证分析

Study on the Decoupling Relationship Between Agricultural High Quality Development and Agricultural Water Footprint:An Empirical Analysis Based on 9 Provinces in the Yellow River Basin

水资源高效利用是农业高质量发展的关键,利用熵权TOPSIS法构建农业高质量发展综合评价指标体系,测度黄河流域9省农业高质量发展水平,依托Tapio弹性脱钩模型,得出农业高质量发展与农业水足迹的脱钩指数,运用LMDI模型将脱钩驱动因素进行分解。结果表明:(1)黄河流域农业高质量发展与农业水足迹脱钩状态,从时间上看,变化较为平稳,整体上有变强趋势;从空间上看,不同省区表现出的脱钩状态存在明显差异,脱钩状态大致呈现“中西南低,东部高”。(2)技术效应脱钩因子属于负向驱动因子,对脱钩变化起到抑制作用;规模经济脱钩因子和人口规模驱动因子属于正向驱动因子,对脱钩变化整体上起到促进作用。为此,需要采取推广节水技术、调整农业用水布局、界定最优农业规模、划分功能区域等政策,推动黄河流域农业高质量发展。

Efficient utilization of water resources is the key for high-quality agricultural development.In this paper,entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality agricultural development to measure the level of highquality agricultural development in nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the Tapio elastic decoupling model,the decoupling index of high-quality agricultural development and agricultural water footprint was obtained.The decoupling drivers were decomposed by LMDI model.The results showed that:①From the perspective of time,the state of decoupling between agricultural water footprint and agricultural high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin changed steadily,and there was a strong trend on the whole;From the perspective of space,there were obvious differences in the decoupling status of different provinces and regions.The decoupling status was roughly"low in the middle southwest and high in the east".②Technology effect decoupling factor is a negative driving factor,which inhibits the decoupling change;the decoupling factor of scale economy and the driving factor of population size are positive driving factors,which promote the decoupling change on the whole.Therefore,it is necessary to promote water-saving technology,adjust the layout of agricultural water use,define the optimal agricultural scale,and divide functional regions and other policies to promote the high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.