生育支持政策的评估:欧洲实践与中国思考

Evaluation of Fertility Support Policies:European Practice and Chinese Thinking

随着2022年中国出现生育主导型人口负增长,建立生育支持政策体系和政策评估体系的任务更加紧迫。建立生育支持政策评估体系是建立生育支持政策体系的有机组成部分,在政策建立之初就做好政策评估的理论准备,有助于完善政策体系,保障政策的完整性和有效性。当前中国关于生育支持政策的相关研究刚刚起步,有关生育支持政策评估的专门研究尚付阙如。文章以生育支持政策的公共政策属性为切入点,讨论了生育支持政策的概念和政策评估的基本方法,指出生育支持政策是区别于欧洲家庭政策的中国本土化概念,生育支持政策的评估可参考公共政策评估方法。基于欧洲国家生育支持政策的评估实践,从设立评估机构、设计评估标准、反馈评估结果三个方面进行概括,提出在政策评估中要充分考虑政策影响的人群差异性、政策间的彼此关联性,以及政策产出的指标综合性。结合中国生育相关政策的评估现状,针对有无必要建立、如何建立、依何建立三个问题,对生育支持政策评估体系提出相应的思考。认为有必要建立国家和地方两个层级的生育支持政策评估体系,明确评估主体、评估对象、评估标准和评估流程。其中,评估指标体系是政策评估体系的核心内容。既要做生育支持政策的整体评估,更要对不同类别的生育支持政策进行分类评估,区分“政策产出”与“政策影响”两类测量指标,考虑短期效果和中长期效果。需要建立人口信息动态监测机制、完善部门间的信息协作机制,整合不同数据来源,科学研判生育形势和人口变动趋势。

With China experiencing negative population growth led by fertility in 2022,the task of establishing a fertility support policy system and a policy evaluation system has become more urgent.The establishment of fertility support policy evaluation system is an organic part of the establishment of fertility support policy system.Making theoretical preparation for policy evaluation at the beginning of policy establishment is helpful to improve the policy system and guarantee the integrity and effectiveness of policy.At present,the relevant research on fertility support policies in China has just started,and the specific studies on the evaluation of fertility support policies are lacking.Based on the public policy attributes of fertility support policy,this paper discusses the concept of fertility support policy and the basic method of policy evaluation.It points out that fertility support policy is a localized concept of China,which is different from European family policies.The evaluation of fertility support policy can refer to the public policy evaluation method.Based on the evaluation practice of fertility support policies in European countries,this paper summarizes the establishment of evaluation institutions,the design of evaluation criteria and the feedback of evaluation results,and proposes that the policy evaluation should fully consider the population differences of policy impact,the correlation between policies and the comprehensive index of policy output.Based on the current situation of the evaluation of China’s fertility policy,this paper puts forward corresponding thoughts on the evaluation system of fertility support policy,aiming at three questions:whether it is necessary to establish,how to establish and the foundation of the establishment.It is believed that it is necessary to establish a national and local fertility support policy evaluation system to clarify the evaluation subject,evaluation object,evaluation criteria and evaluation process.Among them,evaluation index system is the core content of policy evaluation system.It is necessary not only to make an overall evaluation of the fertility support policy,but also to make a classified evaluation of different types of fertility support policy,to distinguish the two measurement indicators of“policy output”and“policy impact”,and to consider the short-and mid-term effects.It is necessary to establish a dynamic monitoring mechanism of population information,improve inter-departmental information cooperation mechanism,integrate different data sources,and scientifically study and judge the fertility situation and population change trend.