基于STAR气候模型的张家口市永定河流域气候变化及对水文水资源系统的影响

Climate Change and Impact on Hydrology and Water Resources System in Yongding River Basin of Zhangjiakou Based on STAR Climate Model

为了分析张家口市永定河流域气候变化情况及对水文水资源系统的影响,基于STAR模型,对实测气候数据时间序列系列进行重组,并利用模糊优选神经网络模型,对站点未来情景下的天然年径流量变化进行预测。结果表明,2009-2035年均日最高气温在高升温、中升温、低升温情况下,升温幅度分别为1.85℃、1.27℃、0.73℃;气温升高,径流量有所减少,并且能够通过模糊优选神经网络模型模拟径流变化情况。

In order to analyse the climate change in the Yongding river basin of Zhangjiakou city and its impact on hydrology and water resources system,based on STAR model,the time series of measured climate data are reconstructed,the fuzzy optimization neural network model is used to predict the change of natural annual runoff under the future scenario of the station.The results show that the average daily maximum temperature from 2009 to 2035 will increase by 1.85℃,1.27℃and 0.73℃under the conditions of high temperature rise,medium temperature rise and low temperature rise respectively;the runoff decreased with the increase of air temperature,and the runoff change can be simulated by the fuzzy optimization neural network model.