中国技术预测(预见)研究脉络与热点追踪——基于CiteSpace的文献计量分析

Research Context and Hot Spot Tracking of Technology Forecast(Foresight)in China——Bibliometric Analysis Based on CiteSpace

技术预测是科技管理部门的一项基础性工作,系统梳理中国技术预测理论研究进展,对更好地开展中国技术预测实践发展具有重要意义。本文基于中文核心期刊数据库,利用CiteSpace可视化工具,对符合检索条件的关于技术预测研究的369篇文献进行知识图谱分析,展现该研究领域从缓慢起步、稳步上升到平稳发展的过程。结果表明:发文机构内部作者之间形成了一定的合作网络,发文机构之间合作不明显,核心作者群尚未出现,文章集中在政府科技管理部门主管的期刊,研究内容除了对技术预测本质、特征等方面的理论探讨之外,还涉及国家层面、特定区域和不同行业的技术预见,其中对于德尔菲法的持续关注较为突出。

Technology forecast is a basic work of science and technology management departments.Combing the research progress of China technology forecast theory is of great significance to better carry out the development of China technology forecast practice.Based on the Chinese core journal database,this paper uses the CiteSpace visualization tool to carry out a knowledge atlas analysis of 369 documents on technology forecast research that meet the search conditions,showing the process of this research field in China from slow start,steady rise to steady development.A certain cooperation network has been formed among authors within the publishing institutions.The cooperation between publishing institutions is not obvious,the core author group has not yet appeared,and the article focuses on the journals in charge of the government s science and technology management department.In addition to theoretical discussion on the nature and characteristics of technology forecast,the research content also involves technology forecast at the national level,specific regions and different industries,of which the continuous attention to Delphi method is more prominent.