俄乌冲突对国际货币体系的冲击与人民币国际化的新机遇

The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the International Monetary System and the New Opportunity for RMB Internationalization

俄乌冲突爆发以来,以美国为首的西方国家对俄罗斯采取了严厉的金融制裁,甚至不惜以牺牲美国国债的安全资产属性为代价,这引发了关于国际货币体系是否会加速演变的讨论。国际货币体系经历了从布雷顿森林Ⅰ到Ⅱ的演进,全球国际收支失衡、美联储大规模量化宽松政策等问题已经加剧了对当前国际货币体系能否持续的争议。此次美国冻结俄罗斯储备资产等一系列美元武器化行为,可能会进一步削弱美元的霸权地位,加剧国际货币体系嬗变。通过对布雷顿森林体系Ⅲ、超主权数字货币、多元化国际储备等不同设想的比较,笔者认为,未来的国际货币体系可能朝着更加多元化、碎片化的方向演进。在此背景下,人民币国际化结合新周期的“三位一体”策略,可能面临新的发展机遇。我国应当采取有效政策措施转危为机,在经济稳定增长与金融持续发展的基础上推动人民币国际地位稳步提升。

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,western countries led by the United States have imposed unprecedented severe financial sanctions on Russia,even at the cost of sacrificing the safe asset attribute of the U.S.treasury bonds,which has triggered a discussion on whether the evolution of International Monetary System(IMS)will be accelerated.The IMS has undergone an evolution from Bretton Woods system I to II.The global imbalance of international payments and the massive quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve have intensified the controversy over the sustainability of the current system.A series of dollar-weaponization actions,such as the freezing of Russian reserve assets by the United States,may further weaken the hegemony of the dollar and accelerate the evolution of the IMS.By comparing different proposals such as Bretton Woods systemⅢ,super-sovereign digital currency and diversified international reserve,it is considered that the future IMS may evolve in a more diversified and fragmented direction.In this context,RMB internationalization combined with the new“trinity”strategy of the new cycle may face new development opportunities.China should take effective measures to turn crisis into opportunity and boost RMB's international status on the basis of stable economic growth and sustainable financial development.