择业大于就业:大学生就业意愿的趋势性分析(2012-2021)

Career Choice over Employment:The Trend Analysis of College Students’Employment Intention(2012-2021)

青年人口就业一直是衡量经济增长和社会发展的重要指标。在高校扩招的带动下,高校学生在青年人口中的比例持续增长。本文针对近年来青年人口失业率大幅增长的问题,使用中国大学生追踪调查(PSCUS)数据,对高校学生的就业预期进行分析,关注学校-工作转折点,并结合宏观的经济增长、人口结构和青年人口变动等数据进行综合研判。分析发现,高校学生在学校-工作转折点上出现了择业大于就业的特点,就业积极性整体不高,就业选择更加青睐体制内单位和一二线城市,选择继续升学的人数更多,这些因素都成为推动16—24岁青年人口失业率偏高的重要原因。

Youth employment has always been an important indicator of economic growth and social development.Driven by the expansion of university enrollment,the proportion of university students in the youth population continues to grow.In view of the problem of the large increase in youth unemployment rate in recent years,this paper uses the Panel Study of Chinese University Students(PSCUS)to analyze the employment expectations of college students,pay attention to the school-work turning point,and combine the macro economic growth,population structure and youth population changes and other data for comprehensive research.It is found that at the turning point between school and work,college students have the characteristics of choosing a career rather than employment,the overall employment enthusiasm is not high,and they prefer institutions within the system and first-and second-tier cities,and continue to study has become the most popular choice,all of which are important reasons for the high unemployment rate among the youth population aged 16-24.