基于博弈论-未确知测度理论的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

Risk assessment of coal mine gas explosion based on game theory and unascertained measure theory

为解决煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估影响因素不确定性、指标权重模糊性的难题,以G1-CRITIC法和博弈论为理论基础,建立博弈论组合赋权-未确知测度的瓦斯爆炸风险评估模型;结合3类危险源理论选取了回风流瓦斯平均体积分数、煤层瓦斯含量、平均瓦斯涌出量等15个影响因素作为瓦斯爆炸风险评估的评价指标,采用博弈论方法计算各评价指标的最优综合常权,最后由未确知测度确定瓦斯爆炸风险评价等级;以某煤矿为工程实例对该评估模型精度进行验证,结果表明,5个采煤工作面的瓦斯爆炸风险等级均为较安全,与原矿井实际情况一致,验证了该评估模型的科学性和可行性,且未确知测度评价模型较物元分析云模型和联系云的可拓模型操作更简单、评价结果更准确。

In order to solve the problems of uncertainty of influencing factors and fuzziness of index weights during risk assessment on coal mine gas explosion,a gas explosion risk assessment model based on G1-CRITIC method and game theory was established.Based on the theory of three types of hazards,15 influencing factors such as averaged gas volume content of return air flow,gas content in coal layer and averaged gas emission were selected as evaluation indexes for gas explosion risk assessment.The optimal comprehensive normal weight of each evaluation index was calculated using game theory method,and the evaluated level of gas explosion risk was determined by uncertainty measurement.A coal mine was taken as a project reference to verify the evaluation model.The results show that the risk levels of gas explosion in five coal mining faces were all relatively safe,which is consistent with the facts of the original mine,which demonstrated that the evaluation model is scientific and practical.Moreover,application of the uncertainty evaluation model is simpler and more accurate than the matter-element analysis cloud model and the extension model of associated cloud.