基于MaxEnt模型预测青海地区露地栽培香瓜茄适生区

Prediction of Suitable Areas for Open-air Cultivation of Pepino in Qinghai Province Based on MaxEnt Model

本研究采用ArcGIS结合MaxEnt模型预测香瓜茄适生区,预测结果AUC值为0.949。影响香瓜茄分布的主要气候因子为:季节性温度变化标准差、年均温、最冷季度平均温度、海拔、昼夜温差与年温差比值,气候因子累计贡献率为87.6%。香瓜茄潜在适生区为云贵高原云南省、黄土高原河西走廊和青海地区低海拔地区,主要海拔分布范围在1000-2000m,总适生区面积占国土面积的20.09%,占青海省总面积的17.32%。2050-2070年,香瓜茄的潜在区将有所增加,但主要潜在分布中心并不会大规模迁移。

In this study,ArcGIS combined with MaxEnt model was used to predict the pepino suitable region,and the AUC value was 0.949.The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of pepino were:standard deviation of seasonal temperature change,annual average temperature,coldest seasonal average temperature,altitude,and isothermal nature,and the cumulative contribution rate of climate factors was 87.6%.The main potential distribution areas of Pepino are located in Yunnan Province,Hexi Corridor of the Loess Plateau and the low-altitude areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,with the main altitude distribution range of 1000-2000,and the total suitable area accounts for 20.09%of China’s land area.Further projections within the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau found that it accounted for about 17.32%of the total area of Qinghai Province.In both 2050 and 2070,the potential area of pepino increased,but there was no large-scale migration in the centers of the main potential distribution.