空间一般均衡视角下的城市交通管理研究:现状与趋势

Urban Transportation Management from Perspective of General Spatial Equilibrium:Review and Trend

城市交通是城市社会经济活动的关键支撑,促进城市交通与土地利用的协调发展是从根源上缓解城市交通拥堵问题,优化城市空间结构及实现城市可持续发展的关键。随着城市经济社会的发展和城镇化进程的推进,以及交通系统的低碳、绿色及智能发展趋势,传统侧重于城市交通供给或需求管理的单方策略已难以适应城市快速发展和居民美好生活的需要,城市交通管理需要更加聚焦职住行综合治理和供需动态平衡,实现与城市空间布局和土地利用等多层面的协调融合发展。本文以城市空间一般均衡理论为基础,围绕空间一般均衡视角下的城市交通出行行为分析、交通需求管理、交通基础设施供给以及供需耦合策略这4方面进行系统梳理,分析评述空间一般均衡视角下城市交通管理研究的理论模型、方法和问题。研究发现,现有模型不能刻画城市动态发展的过程和中国的现实,且依然聚焦在传统的交通管理研究问题。在城市更新、新国土空间规划、新交通技术与新模式及大数据等背景下,空间一般均衡视角下的城市交通管理研究存在巨大的发展空间,亟需在相关理论和方法上进行突破。未来可深入研究的方向包括:一是,分析城市发展进程中居民效用决策的影响因素,提出交通与城市融合发展下的居民效用决策理论与模型;二是,采用数据驱动和理论驱动相结合的方法,分析和管理城市活动/出行行为;三是,探究交通系统的新技术和新模式对城市空间结构和交通出行特征的影响,挖掘面向数智化时代的城市交通管理策略;四是,探究城市更新下交通引导城市空间重塑的理论与方法。

Urban transportation is the foundation of urban social and economic activities.Coordinated development of urban transportation and land use is of great practical significance to reduce traffic congestion,optimize the urban spatial structure,and realize sustainable urban development from the root of problems.With the development of urban society and the advancement of urbanization,as well as the low-carbon,green,and intelligent development trend of the transportation system,traditional urban transportation strategies purely focusing on supply or demand management cannot meet the needs of rapid urban development and the aspirations of the people to live a better life.Urban transportation management needs to focus on comprehensive governance of employment,housing,and transportation and dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand,to realize the coordinated and integrated development with urban spatial layout and land use.Based on the general spatial equilibrium theory,the literature on urban travel behavior analysis,travel demand management,transportation infrastructure supply,and supply-demand coupling strategies are systematically reviewed in this paper.Besides,the theoretical models,methods,and research problems in this area are also reviewed.It is found that the existing models cannot describe the dynamic process of urban development and the reality of China,and the related studies still focused on the traditional transportation management research problems.In the context of urban renewal,new territorial space planning systems,new transportation technologies and travel patterns,and big data,it is suggested that there is great potential for urban transportation management research from the perspective of general spatial equilibrium.It needs urgently a breakthrough in the corresponding theories and methods.Further research directions are proposed:the first is to analyze the influencing factors of residents'utility in the process of urban development,and put forward household utility decision-making theories and models under the integrated transportation and urban development;the second is to do activity/travel behavior analysis and management based on the data-driven and theory-driven methods;the third is to explore the impact of new technologies and modes of the transportation system on urban spatial structure and traffic characteristics,and study urban transport management issues for the era of digitization and intelligence;and the fourth is to explore theories and methods of urban space reshaping guided by transportation under urban renewal.