基于空间杜宾模型的城市轨道交通车站周边商业地产价格分析

Price Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Around Urban Rail Transit Station Based on Spatial Dubin Model

为研究城市轨道交通车站对周边商业地产价格的影响,本文在传统特征价格模型的基础上,考虑样本间的空间依赖性,引入空间变量构建空间计量模型,对不同模型的训练拟合效果进行评估;引入车站出入口结合形式变量,与距离变量共同表示可达性,分析城市轨道交通车站可达性与商业地产价格的关系。相关模型的拟合训练及效果对比显示:空间杜宾模型拟合效果优于传统特征价格模型及其他空间计量模型;与对照组模型回归效果的准确度相比,考虑车站出入口结合形式的基本组均方误差下降21.74%,结合形式变量的引入提升了空间杜宾模型回归结果的准确性。针对北京和上海的案例分析显示,商业地产价格与出入口结合形式紧密度呈现正相关,具有对接式、贴附式和融入式结合形式的商业地产与一般式相比,价格最高分别高出51.20%、45.02%和43.10%。

To investigate the influence of urban rail transit stations on the surrounding commercial real estate prices,this paper considered the spatial dependence between samples,introduced spatial variables to build a Spatial Econometrics Model(SEM)based on the traditional Hedonic Price Model(HPM)and evaluated the training and fitting effects of different models.The combination form of station entrance and exit was introduced in the study to represent accessibility with the distance variable.The relationship between the accessibility of urban rail transit stations and the price of commercial real estate was also analyzed.The fitting training and effect comparison of relevant models show that the fitting effect of the Spatial Dubin Model(SDM)is better than the traditional HPM and other SEMs.Compared with the accuracy of the regression effect of the control group,the mean square error of the basic group considering the station entrance and exit combination form decreased by 21.74%.The introduction of the combination form variable improved the accuracy of the regression result of the SDM.The case analysis in Beijing and Shanghai show that the price of commercial real estate is positively correlated with the tightness of entrance and exit combination form.Compared with the general type,the prices of commercial real estate with the combination form of docking type,attaching type and integrating type were respectively increased by 51.20%,45.02%and 43.10%.