新安江模型在尼洋河多布水电站径流预报中的应用研究

Application of Xin'an River Model in Runoff Prediction of Duobu Hydropower Station in Niyang River

尼洋河流域降雨充沛,流域附近洪水频发。本文采用新安江模型对尼洋河流域多布水电站径流预报进行研究,首先通过比较传统参数寻优方法及现代参数寻优方法的优劣,选择遗传算法对新安江水文模型参数进行寻优率定,基于尼洋河流域多布水电站及更张水文站以上流域对率定后的新安江水文模型进行验证,最后分析洪峰预报误差、各年径流深误差、多年平均径流深误差以及各年的确定性系数得出结论,结论表明:2016~2019年通过率定后的新安江模型预报的流量过程精度均达到《水文情报预报规范》中的乙级标准,通过遗传算法率定的新安江模型有效应用于尼洋河流域的径流预报工作,能够为该地区的洪水预报工作提供参考。

The Niyang River basin has abundant rainfall and frequent floods near the basin.Based on the model of Xin'an River runoff forecast model,Duobu hydropower station in Niyang River was studied.Firstly,by comparing the traditional parameter optimization method and modern optimization method,the genetic algorithm of Xin'an River hydrologic model parameters for optimal rate was selected.The rate of Xin'an River hydrological model based on Duobu hydropower station in Niyang River basin and the watershed above Changzhang hydrological station were verified.Finally,the flood forecast error,the error of each year runoff depth,the error of multi-year average runoff depth and the deterministic coefficient of each year were analyzed.The conclusion showed that from 2016 to 2019,the flow process accuracy of the Xin'an River model after the calibration reached the Grade B standard of the Hydrologic Information Forecast Specification.The Xin'an River model calibrated by genetic algorithm was effectively applied to the runoff prediction work of the Niyang River basin,which could provide a reference for the flood prediction work in this region.