烟台市近30年耕地时空演变及粮食安全研究

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Cultivated Land and Food Security in Yantai City in the Past 30 Years

本文以烟台市耕地为研究对象,以其1990、2005和2020年30 m空间分辨率的土地利用数据库为基础,利用ArcGIS 10.6和土地利用转移矩阵分析了烟台市1990—2020年间耕地的时空演变规律,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)与时间序列模型的ARIMA模型对烟台市2030年的人口、粮食播种面积和粮食产量进行了预测,从而分析了烟台市未来的粮食安全。结果显示:1)烟台市耕地面积不断减少,30年间耕地减少了94.73 khm^(2),其中2005—2020年减少速度最快,空间上海阳市和牟平区减少最为迅速;2)经济发展、比较经济利益、消费观念和人口老龄化影响是引起粮食播种面积减少的主要因素;3)烟台市播种面积持续减少,2030年将面临区域粮食安全危机。最后提出了烟台市粮食安全保障对策,为烟台市未来的耕地保护和合理调整提供了参考和依据。

The cultivated land in Yantai City is the research object in this paper.Its spatial and temporal changes from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed with ArcGIS 10.6 and land use transfer matrix based on its 30 m spatial resolution land use database in 1990,2005 and 2020.Then the grey prediction model GM(1,1)and the ARIMA model of time series model were used to predict the population,grain planting area and grain yield of Yantai City in 2030,so as to analyze its future food security.The results are as follows.1)The area of cultivated land in Yantai City had been decreasing,and the cultivated land had decreased by 94732.06 hm^(2)in the past 30 years.The rate of decrease was the fastest from 2005 to 2020,among which Haiyang City and Muping District have the fastest decrease.2)Economic development,comparative economic benefits,consumption concept and the impact of population aging were the main factors causing the reduction of grain acreage.3)As the sown area continues to decrease,Yantai City will face a regional food security crisis in 2030.Finally,the countermeasures to ensure food security in Yantai City were proposed,which may provide a reference and basis for the future protection and reasonable adjustment of cultivated land in Yantai City.