动态GM(1,1)模型在沉降预测中的应用研究

Research on Application of Dynamic GM(1,1)Model inSettlement Prediction

灰色理论广泛应用于沉降预测,对指导现场施工具有重要意义。传统GM(1,1)模型的建立是以前期沉降数据作为建立模型的原始序列,然后对后几期沉降量进行预测。传统预测模型是一种静态的预测模型,短期预测的效果好,但对中长期沉降的预测结果准确性较低。本文采取了一种动态的建模方法,采用动态递补的方式不断更新预测模型,使其适用于中长期沉降的预测。

Grey theory is widely used in settlement prediction and is of great significance for guiding on-site construction.The establishment of the traditional GM(1,1)model is to use the previous settlement data as the original sequence to establish the model,and then to predict the settlement of the later periods.The traditional forecasting model is a static forecasting model,which has a good effect on short-term forecasting,but the accuracy of forecasting results for medium and long-term is low.In this paper,a dynamic modeling method is adopted,and the forecasting model is continuously updated by dynamic supplement,making it suitable for medium and long-term forecasting.