中国三大城市群包容性增长水平测度及其分布动态演进——基于包容性全要素生产率视角

Measurement and Dynamic DistributionEvolution of Inclusive Growth Level of Three Major UrbanAgglomerations in China:A Perspective of Inclusive Total Factor Productivity

为把握经济包容性增长情况,从包容性全要素生产率(TFP)评价视角考察城市群包容性增长水平。基于2006—2019年城市数据,运用全局Malmquist-Lenberger模型(GML模型)测算京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群的包容性TFP指数,然后采用Kernel密度估计方法对城市群包容性TFP增长的分布动态演进趋势进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)三大城市群整体包容性TFP指数呈波动上升趋势,但城市群内部包容性TFP差异总体扩大,技术效率是促进包容性TFP增长的主要来源。(2)三大城市群包容性TFP增长具有空间异质性,长三角包容性TFP增长水平整体上优于京津冀和珠三角,且其包容性TFP差异呈总体缩小趋势。(3)城市群整体及京津冀、长三角城市群包容性TFP增长均存在拖尾和极化特征,而珠三角城市群无明显的拖尾现象且极化趋势逐渐减弱。

Based on the inclusive total factor productivity(TFP)evaluation perspective,this paper uses urban data from 2006 to 2019 and the global Malmquist-Lenberger model(GML)to measure the inclusive TFP index of the three major urban agglomerations in China.The kernel density estimation method is used to empirically analyze the dynamic evolution trend of the growth in urban inclusive TFP.The results show:(1)The overall inclusive TFP index of the three major urban agglomerations shows a fluctuating upward trend,but the differences in inclusive TFP within the urban agglomerations are generally widening,and technical efficiency is the main source of promoting inclusive TFP growth.(2)The three major urban agglomerations are spatially heterogeneous in terms of inclusive TFP growth,with the Yangtze River Delta outperforming Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Pearl River Delta on the whole,and their inclusive TFP differences showing an overall decreasing trend.(3)Inclusive TFP growth in the urban agglomerations as a whole,as well as in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations,is characterized by trailing and polarising features,while the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration has no obvious trailing phenomenon and the polarising trend is gradually decreasing.