国家自主创新示范区的碳减排效应

Carbon emission reduction effects of national independent innovation demonstration zones

为应对全球气候变化,彰显国际责任与担当,中国确立了碳达峰、碳中和的“双碳”目标,而国家自主创新示范区作为实施创新驱动发展战略的重要举措,在促进经济高质量发展中起着至关重要的作用,因此,国家自主创新示范区能否降低碳排放是值得研究的重要问题。该研究以国家自主创新示范区创建为准自然实验,采用2004—2019年地级市及以上城市面板数据,建立渐进双重差分模型,研究国家自主创新示范区对地区碳排放的影响。实证研究发现:①国家自主创新示范区能够显著降低地区碳排放,促进地区经济低碳发展。相对非试点地区而言,国家自主创新示范区使得试点地区碳排放下降了24.94%。②异质性检验发现,对于东部地区、人口规模大的地区而言,国家自主创新示范区能够显著降低碳排放,而中西部地区、人口规模小的地区,国家自主创新示范区降低碳排放的政策效果则并不显著,无论地区行政等级高低以及经济规模大小,国家自主创新示范区均能够降低碳排放,且在行政等级低的地区、经济规模大的地区其试点政策效果更加明显。③传导机制检验发现,技术创新和产业结构升级是国家自主创新示范区降低碳排放的重要传导机制。④拓展分析表明,国家自主创新示范区能够降低其相邻地区的碳排放,并且在东部、西部地区其政策效果明显。因此,政府应进一步扩大国家自主创新示范区的试点范围;重视技术创新与产业结构升级在碳减排过程中发挥的重要作用;还应坚持因地制宜,推动国家自主创新示范区特色化发展。

To demonstrate China’s international responsibility in dealing with global climate change,the country has established the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality.The establishment of national independent innovation demonstration zones,as an important measure to implement the innovation-driven development strategy,plays a crucial role in promoting highquality economic development.Therefore,whether these demonstration zones can reduce carbon emissions is an important issue worth studying.This study took the establishment of national independent innovation demonstration zones as a quasi-natural experiment and used the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above from 2004 to 2019 to establish an asymptotic difference-in-differences model to study the impact of the zones on the low-carbon development of regional economy.The empirical study found that:①The national independent innovation demonstration zones significantly reduced regional carbon emissions and promoted the low-carbon development of the regional economy.Compared with the non-pilot areas,these zones reduced the carbon emissions of the pilot areas by 24.94%.②The heterogeneity test found that,for the eastern region and regions with a large population,the national independent innovation demonstration zones could significantly reduce carbon emissions,while for the central and western regions and regions with a small population,the policy effect of the zones on reducing carbon emissions was not significant.The zones could reduce carbon emissions regardless of the administrative level and economic scale of the region,and the effect of the pilot policy was more obvious in areas with a low administrative level and a large economic scale.③The transmission mechanism test found that technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading were important channels for the national independent innovation demonstration zones to reduce carbon emissions.④The expansion analysis showed that the national independent innovation demonstration zones could reduce the carbon emissions of their neighboring regions,and their policy effect was obvious in the eastern and western regions.Therefore,the government should further expand the pilot scope of the national independent innovation demonstration zones and pay attention to the important role of technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading in the process of carbon emission reduction.We should also adhere to adjusting measures to local conditions and promote the distinctive development of national independent innovation demonstration zones.