碳中和背景下金砖国家气候政策、能源结构与碳排放的比较

BRICS countries’ climate policies, energy structures, and carbonemissions towards carbon neutrality

作为新兴发展中国家的代表,金砖五国在碳中和背景下提出了各自的气候变化政策与碳减排目标。该研究系统梳理金砖国家近半个世纪内的应对气候变化战略的政策演变,并分析金砖国家在气候变化领域具有代表性的政策。该研究对金砖国家各自能源结构和分能源分行业部门的碳排放情况进行了分析,研究发现金砖国家能源结构各有特点但存在共性,随着时间的推移,金砖国家的能源结构逐渐多样化,非化石能源种类增多,但除巴西外的金砖国家化石能源占比仍较大,减排压力较大。基于目前各国能源结构和碳排放特点,该研究采用GAINS模型预测了金砖国家在各自背景下实现碳中和目标的路径和未来预期并对金砖国家经济社会发展现状和未来需求提出了建议,主要包括加强法律法规建设,能源和碳管理领域的科技合作,碳减排核心技术的合作,以及完善金砖合作机制,拓展全方位合作等方式助力金砖国家碳中和目标实现。

In the context of carbon neutrality,the BRICS countries,representatives of emerging developing countries,have proposed their own adaptation policies and carbon emission reduction targets(CERT).Here,we sort out the evolution of their climate policies and actions over the past half-century.After piecing together their energy structures and carbon emissions from various sources and by different sectors,we see distinct energy structures diverging over time with increasing varieties of non-fossil energy.However,all the BRICS countries,except for Brazil,still rely heavily on fossil fuels,which poses a real challenge to emission reduction.After considering their diversified energy structures,we estimate their timelines for achieving the carbon neutrality goal using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies(GAINS)model.From the model output,we propose possible solutions to help achieve the carbon neutrality goal with respect to their individual status quo and future needs for socioeconomic development.The suggestions include reinforcing the legislation,strengthening cooperation in the fields of energy and carbon management and in core technologies for carbon emission reduction,improving the cooperation mechanisms of the BRICS countries,and further expanding all-round cooperation.