气候变化情景下革苞菊属在中国的潜在地理分布

Potential geographical distributions of Tugarinovia in China under climate change scenarios

革苞菊属(Tugarinovia Iljin)为阿拉善荒漠特有属,预测气候变化对革苞菊属潜在地理分布的影响对其保护至关重要。本研究基于革苞菊属当前在中国的34个分布点和22个环境变量,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟当前和未来(2050s、2070s)3种共享社会经济路径下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)革苞菊属在中国的分布格局变化,采用ROC曲线下方的面积AUC值检验模型预测效果,以刀切法和综合贡献率分析影响其分布的主要环境因子。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型模拟准确度较高(AUC=0.992);海拔、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量和年平均温度是影响革苞菊属地理分布的主导环境因子。(2)当前革苞菊属适生区面积和高适生区面积范围均较小,适生区面积为37.08×10^(4)km^(2),高适生区面积为6.89×10^(4)km^(2),主要沿着阴山和贺兰山一带呈破碎化分布。(3)未来3种气候情景下革苞菊属高适生区面积总体呈增加趋势,且在SSP5-8.5气候情景下增加幅度较大;其适生区质心主要向东(阿拉善左旗)迁移。

Tugarinovia is a genus that is endemic to the Alashan Desert in China.It is crucial for the conservation of Tugarinovia to predict the impact of climate change on its potential geographical distribution.This study was based on 34 sites of distribution of Tugarinovia in China and 22 environmental variables.The current and future(2050s and 2070s)changes in the pattern of distribution of Tugarinovia under three shared socio-economic paths(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in China were simulated using a maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model.The ability of model to predict these changes was verified by the area under curve(AUC)value under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and the primary environmental factors that affect its distribution were analyzed using the Jackknife method and comprehensive contribution rate.The results showed the following:(1)The MaxEnt model has high simulation accuracy(AUC=0.992),and altitude,the warmest quarterly precipitation,the coldest quarterly precipitation,and annual average temperature are the dominant environmental factors that affect the geographical distribution of the Tugarinovia.(2)Currently,the suitable and highly suitable areas for Tugarinovia are both limited,with a suitable area of 37.08×10^(4)km^(2) and a highly suitable area of 6.89×10^(4)km^(2),which are primarily distributed along the Yinshan and Helan Mountains in a fragmented manner.(3)The future three climate scenarios suggest that the highly suitable areas of Tugarinovia will overall increase and display a significant increase under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario.The centroid of its suitable area mainly migrates to the east(Alxa Left Banner).