基于系统动力学的山东省低碳发展研究

Research on Low-Carbon Development in Shandong Province Based on System Dynamics

山东省是我国能源消耗大省,碳排放量居全国首位,为满足山东省“十四五”规划,有序推进山东省碳达峰碳中和,发展绿色低碳经济,利用系统动力学Vensim-PLE软件对山东省低碳发展进行模型构建与研究。通过设立5种情景模拟2020~2030年间山东省碳排放量趋势,以研究经济发展、科技投入、产业结构、能源结构等因素对山东省低碳发展的影响。模拟结果表明,在综合模式下降低二产比例6%至三产、GDP增长率由3.7%增至5.5%、煤炭/石油/天然气/非化石能源为56%,14%,9%,13%,提高科技投入占比0.5个百分点,山东省二氧化碳排放量在2025年达到峰值103952万t,随后在2030年下降至100238万t,碳排放强度下降至0.83 t/万元GDP,煤炭消耗量下降至27963万t标准煤,符合规划要求。

Shandong Province is a big energy consumption province in China,and its carbon emission ranks first in the country.In order to meet the“14th Five-Year Plan”of Shandong Province,promote the carbon neutralization of Shandong Province in an orderly manner,and develop a green and low-carbon economy,this paper uses system dynamics-Vensim(PLE)software conducts model construction and research on low-carbon development in Shandong Province.By setting up 5 scenarios to simulate the carbon emission trend in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2030,study the impact of economic development,technological investment,industrial structure,energy structure and other factors on the low-carbon development of Shandong Province.The simulation results show that under the comprehensive model,the proportion of secondary production is reduced from 6%to tertiary production,the GDP growth rate is increased from 3.7%to 5.5%,and the ratio of coal/oil/natural gas/non-fossil energy is 56%,14%,9%,13%,increase the proportion of science and technology investment by 0.5 percentage points,the carbon dioxide emissions in Shandong Province will peak at 1039.52 million tons in 2025,and then drop to 1002.38 million tons in 2030,and the carbon emission intensity will drop to 0.83 tons/10000 yuan of GDP,coal consumption dropped to 279.63 million tons of standard coal,meeting the planning requirements.