我国七大流域经济、人口发展比较及展望

Comparison and Prospect of Economic and Population Development in Seven Major River Basins

文章以流域覆盖的地市级行政区为基本单元,通过对跨流域的市(州、盟、地区)采用流域面积占辖区面积的比例分摊,全面分析了长江、黄河、珠江、淮河、海河、松花江、辽河等七大流域经济、人口发展的现状特点和空间分布,并对各流域2035年发展趋势进行展望。预计2035年前我国七大流域经济发展和人口聚集将呈现“南快北慢”的格局,七大流域占全国经济份额有所提升,并呈现经济继续向长江流域集中,人口向珠江流域聚集,黄河流域经济份额稳中有升,海河、淮河、松花江和辽河四大流域人口、经济占比“双下降”的趋势。

Taking the prefecture-level administrative regions covered by the river basin as the basic unit,based on the proportion of the river basin area to the area under the jurisdiction of the cities(prefectures and leagues)across the river basin,this paper comprehensively analyzes the current characteristics and spatial distribution of economic and population development in seven major river basins:the Yangtze River,the Yellow River,the Pearl River,the Huaihe River,the Haihe River,the Songhua River and the Liaohe River,and prospects the development trend of each river basin in 2035.It is predicted that by 2035,the economic development and population concentration of the seven major river basins in China will be"faster in the south and slower in the north",the economic share of the seven major river basins in China will be increased,and the economic share of the seven river basins will continue to be concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin,besides,the population will be concentrated in the Pearl River Basin,and the economic share of the Yellow River Basin will be stable but rising,the population and economic share of Haihe River Basin,Huaihe River Basin,Songhua River Basin and Liaohe River Basin showed a trend of"double decline".