近30年以来国际经贸格局变化和农产品国际贸易发展

International economic and trade pattern change and agricultural international trade development in the past three decades

冷战结束以来,世界经贸格局发生显著变化,首先表现在以美国为首的西方发达国家逐渐衰退和以中国为首的发展中国家不断崛起;其次,服务贸易领域迅速发展,有不断赶超货物贸易趋势,贸易规则演变由多边逐渐转向双边和区域贸易发展.从农业国际贸易发展看,由于农业本身受资源禀赋和环境要素影响较大,短期农业国际贸易格局不会改变,美国仍是世界第一农业超级大国,且这种趋势正趋于平稳,与此同时,以巴西为首的金砖国家农业不断崛起,在世界舞台中发挥越来越重要作用.后疫情时代,国际农产品市场将发生较大波动,农产品供需关系、市场结构和价格水平都会随之改变,对于农产品外贸依赖程度较高的国家,会造成巨大冲击,而农产品对外依赖程度较低的国家,所受影响相对较小.

Since the end of the Cold War,the world economic and trade patterns has changed significantly.The first performance is the graduate recession in the US-led western developed countries and the rising in developing countries,led by China.Second,the field of trade in services has developed rapidly,with trend to catch up with trade in goods.The evolution of trade rules has gradually shifted from multilateral to bilateral and regional trade.In terms of the development of agricultural international trade,because agriculture itself is greatly influenced by resources endowment and environmental elements,short-term agricultural pattern of international trade will not change.The United States remains the world s first agricultural superpower,and this trend is stable.At the same time,agriculture in the BRICS countries,led by Brazil,keep rising and plays an increasingly important role on the world stage.In the post-epidemic era,the international agricultural market will fluctuate greatly,and the supply-demand relationship,market structure and price level of agricultural products will change accordingly,which will have a huge impact on countries with a high degree of dependence on agricultural trade,while countries with a low degree of dependence on agricultural trade will be relatively less affected.