近10年阿克达拉臭氧质量浓度与气象因子的相关性研究

Study on Correlation Between Ozone Mass Concentration and Meteorological Factors in Akedala in Recent 10 Years

在人体健康以及环境保护的需求之下,开展环境预报具有重要的现实意义。为了解阿克达拉臭氧质量浓度的影响因子,开展有针对性的气象环境预报,利用2010~2019年阿克达拉站的臭氧观测资料,采用皮尔森相关系数、逐步回归等方法,分析了臭氧日最大8 h滑动平均质量浓度(用C8h(O_(3))表示)与气象因子的相关性,并建立预报方程。结果表明:能见度、日照、气温不受季节影响,与C8h(O_(3))显著正相关,气压、湿度也不受季节影响,与C8h(O_(3))显著负相关;风速与水汽压随着季节的变化,与C8h(O_(3))的相关性差异大;日照和气温与C8h(O_(3))的相关性最密切。日最高气温和日照时数引起的C8h(O_(3))变化具有一致性,日最高气温为6℃、日照时数=7 h时C8h(O_(3))出现谷值;日平均本站气压、日最小相对湿度与C8h(O_(3))有明显线性关系,当日平均本站气压低于950 hPa、日最小相对湿度小于35%时C8h(O_(3))大于平均值;臭氧污染源来自于阿克达拉西侧,风向的季节性差异使C8h(O_(3))也具有季节性变化。四季回归方程能够有效预报C8h(O_(3))的变化趋势,秋季回归方程的预报准确率最高、夏季最低。此研究为阿克达拉开展空气环境质量预报提供了参考依据。

Under the requirement of human health and environmental protection,it is of great practical significance to carry out environmental forecasting.In order to understand the influencing factors of ozone mass concentration and carry out targeted meteorological environment forecast,using the ozone observation data of Akedala Station from 2010~2019,the correlation between the maximum daily 8h sliding average mass concentration Csh(O,)and meteorological factors was analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient and gradual regression method,and the Csh(O,)prediction equation was established.The results showed that visibility,sunshine and temperature are not affected by seasons,which are significantly positively correlated with Csh(O)While air pressure and humidity are not affected by seasons either,and are significantly negatively correlated with Csh(O,).Wind speed and water vapor pressure varies with seasons,and are greatly different with Csh(O,).Sunshine and temperature are most closely related with Csh(O,).The change of Cgh(O,)caused by the daily maximum temperature and sunshine duration is consistent,when the daily maximum temperature is 6℃and sunshineduration is7h,thevalley valueof Csh(O,)appears.There is an obvious linear relationship between the average daily air station pressure and daily minimum relative humidity with Csh(0,),when the average air pressure of the station is below 950 hPa and the daily minimum relative humidity is less than 35%,Csh(O,)is greater than the average.The ozone pollution source comes from the west side of Aktala,and the seasonal difference in wind direction makes Cgh(O,)also have seasonal variations.The four seasons regression equation can effectively predict the change trend of Csh(O,),and the autumn regression equation has the highest prediction accuracy while the summer has the lowest.This study provides a reference for Akadala to carry out air environment quality forecast.