新农保参与行为与退耕还林还草:理论分析与实证检验

New old‑age insurance system for rural residents and the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program:theoretical analysis and empirical test

退耕还林还草工程实施的主要阻力之一是补贴结束后,农民生计受到挑战时所面临的复耕风险,新农保的施行弱化了土地经济保障功能,有可能促进农民自发、永久性退耕还林还草。首先,基于效用论,构建了新农保作用农民退耕还林还草行为的理论分析框架;其次,基于农业农村部农村经济研究中心全国农村固定观察点18789份数据,运用Probit模型实证分析了新农保对农民退耕还林还草行为的影响;最后,运用基于聚类稳健标准误的logistic回归模型进行稳健性检验。结果显示:①新农保增加预期收入,退耕还林还草减少预期收入,但退耕还林还草后多出来的闲余时间增加了农民效用。基于效用论所构建的农户行为理论分析框架显示,农户参与新农保的行为影响到耕地面积数量,从而作用农户退耕还林还草行为。②农民参加新农保后,其采取退耕还林还草行为的可能性更高,新农保增加了农民年老时基本生活依赖的渠道,从而弱化了耕地的经济保障功能,一定程度上促进了农民参加退耕还林还草工程。③稳健性检验中,基于聚类稳健标准误的logistic回归模型仍然证实了“参加新农保有利于农民退耕还林还草”的结论。④健康状况越差的农户,采取退耕还林还草行为的可能性越低,健康状况差一般意味着医疗费开支大,未来收入面临较大不确定性,对耕地的依赖性强,从而不愿意退耕还林还草;年末生产性固定资产原值越大的农户,越有可能具有退耕还林还草行为。政策层面可以考虑将林区和牧区的“新农保”制度和退耕还林还草政策结合起来,统筹推进退耕还林还草工程,提升工程实施的质量。

One of the main obstacles to implementing the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program(CCFGP)is the risk of returning forest and grassland to cropland when their livelihoods are challenged after subsidies expire.The implementation of the new old-age insurance system for rural residents has weakened the economic security function of cropland and may motivate farmers to engage in the CCFGP spontaneously and permanently.Based on the utility theory,this paper first developed a theoretical analysis framework for the behaviors of farmers who participated in the CCFGP and were affected by the new old-age insurance system.Then,based on the data of 18789 fixed rural observation stations set by the Rural Economy Research Center of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,the Probit model was used to empirically analyze the impact of the new old-age insurance system on farmers’behaviors in the CCFGP.Finally,the robustness of the results was tested using a logistic regression model based on clustering robust standard errors.The results showed that:①The new old-age insurance system increased expected income,while the CCFGP reduced expected income,but the extra spare time after the action increased farmers’utility.The theoretical analysis framework showed that:the behaviors of farmers participating in the new old-age insurance system affected the amount of arable land,thus affecting the behaviors of farmers’participation in the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland.②After farmers’participation in the new agricultural insurance,they were more likely to adopt the behaviors associated with the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland.The new oldage insurance system increased the income channels for elderly farmers,thereby weakening the economic security function of cultivated land and,to a certain extent,promoting farmers to take part in the CCFGP.③In the robustness test,the logistic regression model with clustering robust standard errors still confirmed the conclusion that‘participating in the new old-age insurance system is beneficial for farmers joining the CCFGP.’④The poorer the health conditions of farmers,the lower the possibility of joining the CCFGP.Poor health conditions generally meant large medical expenses,greater uncertainty in future income,and strong dependence on cultivated land,which resulted in farmers’reluctance to be involved in the CCFGP.Farmers with higher original values of productive fixed assets were more likely to join the CCFGP.The policy implications of the conclusions are that it may be more effective to integrate the new old-age insurance system for rural residents with the CCFGP.