防风险的财政政策、货币政策与宏观审慎政策动态协调效应研究

A Study on the Dynamic Coordination Effect of Fiscal Policy,Monetary Policy and Macro-prudential Policy for Risk Prevention

党的二十大报告强调,要“守住不发生系统性风险底线”“提高防范化解重大风险能力”,同时防范化解重大风险也是新时代我国三大攻坚战之一。本文提出经济风险的特征表现为时间维度风险的积累和横截面维度风险的传染,以财政政策、货币政策与宏观审慎政策为主的宏观调控体系在解决内部失衡、防范化解重大风险的协调中尤为重要,本文从理论层面分析了财政政策、货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调配合机制,并以防范经济宽幅波动为目标,选择相应政策工具变量,运用带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR-SV)分析了我国财政政策、货币政策与宏观审慎政策的防风险协调效应,结果表明其协调配合对经济稳定作用明显,在短期、中期、长期降低经济波动性的水平分别约为0.19%、0.05%、0.03%,本文也发现不关注债务稳定性的财政政策在一定程度上造成了经济波动。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need to"hold the bottom line of no systemic risks"and"improve the ability to prevent and resolve major risks".Preventing and resolving major risks is also one of the three major battles in the new era of China.This paper proposes that the characteristics of economic risks are the accumulation of risks over time and the spread of risks in the cross-section dimension.The macro-control system with fiscal policy,monetary policy and mac­ro-prudential policy as the main focuses is especially important to coordinate solving internal imbalances and preventing and resolving major risks.This paper analyzes the coordination mechanism of fiscal policy,monetary policy and macro-prudential policy from a theoretical perspective.Taking the goal of preventing large fluctuations in the economy,it selects appropriate policy tool variables and uses a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic fluctuations(TVP-VAR-SV)to analyze the risk prevention coordination effect of China's fiscal policy,monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.The results show that their coordination and cooperation have a significant stabilizing effect on the economy.In the short,medium and long term,the levels of reducing economic volatility are about 0.19%,0.05%and 0.03%respectively.This paper also finds that fiscal policy that does not pay attention to debt stability has caused economic volatility to some extent.