基于案例推理的地震灾害应急决策方法

Case-based Reasoning Research on Earthquake Emergency Decision Method

科学、有效的应急决策是地震灾害成功处置的关键。案例推理技术通过将历史案例与数学算法相结合,已被广泛应用于台风、洪涝、火灾等突发灾害事故的应急决策中。从地震信息、灾情信息、应急响应与救援信息3方面对案例特征要素进行选取,引入基于结构相似度和属性相似度结合的全局相似度计算方法,找到与目标案例最相似的历史案例,并根据最相似历史案例的发展演化过程与处置措施,辅助决策者对当前地震灾害处置进行决策。最后以某次地震灾害实例,验证了本文所提出的研究思路与相关算法的合理性和科学性。

Scientific and effective emergency decision is the key to the success of earthquake disposal.Case-based reasoning is a computer technology applied in the field of artificial intelligence,which has been widely used in typhoon,flood,fire and other sudden disasters to combine historical cases with mathematical algorithms.This paper explores the decision-making process of selecting case feature elements from the information on the earthquake,its damage,emergency response and rescue,to find the most similar historical case to the target case with holistic similarity calculation method based on the structural and attribute similarity,and making a decision based on the evolution process and disposal measures of the most similar historical cases.Finally,the rationality and scientificity of the research ideas and related algorithms proposed in this paper are verified by a real earthquake.