省际多维度城镇化的时空分异及耦合协调发展研究

Research on Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Coupled Coordinated Development of Inter-provincial Multi-dimensional Urbanization

文章构建多维度城镇化综合评价指标体系,在此基础上运用耦合协调度模型以及面板数据模型,对2009—2019年我国31个省份人口、土地、经济城镇化的时空演变特征及耦合协调发展规律进行分析,并进一步探索影响不同省份耦合协调度的因子。研究表明:2009—2019年全国城镇化综合发展水平呈现波动上升趋势,其中人口城镇化水平增长迅速,且对城镇化综合发展水平的影响较大;研究期内,全国大部分省份的耦合协调度均处于中度失调衰退类或过渡发展类,处于基本耦合协调类的省份数量持续增长,同时小部分省份达到了良好耦合协调类;交通便利性因子及产业结构调整因子对城镇化协调发展、快速向好以及失调衰退地区的耦合协调度均具有显著的影响,但影响方向差异明显。

By constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of multidimensional urbanization,this paper applies a coupling coordination degree model and a panel data model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the pat⁃tern of coupled and coordinated development of population,land and economic urbanization of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019,and further explores the factors affecting the degree of coupled and coordinated development in different provinces.The results are shown as follows:The overall development level of urbanization across the country showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2009 to 2019,with population urbanization level growing rapidly and maintaining a high level of influence on the overall lev⁃el of urbanization development.During the study period,most provinces were at a moderate dislocation or transitional stage of coupled and coordinated development,and those at a basic level of coupled and coordinated development continued to grow,while a small number of provinces reached a good level of coupled and coordinated development.The transport accessibility fac⁃tor and the industrial restructuring factor have a significant impact on the level of coupled and coordinated development of urban⁃ization,rapid improvement and dysfunctional declining areas,but the direction of influence varies significantly.