天然气场站燃爆风险评估模型及应用

Risk Assessment Model and Application of Natural Gas Station Explosion

天然气场站作为城市中不可缺少的能量供给源,其在运营过程中存在一定的风险。通过对现有的相关法律法规、标准规范以及中外现有研究成果的参考,初步形成以天然气场站燃爆为目标,以工作人员、组织管理、失效、点火源4个一级指标,14个二级指标和46个三级指标为天然气场站燃爆风险评估指标体系的框架结构。设计发放调研问卷,利用统计分析软件验证评价指标体系的信度效度,量化分析燃爆指标体系。采用模糊综合和层次分析的方法,确立天然气场站燃爆风险评估模型,以陕西省某天然气场站为燃爆风险评估对象,验证所建数学模型的有效实用性,进而对天然气场站的燃爆事故防控与安全管理提供了依据。

As an indispensable source of energy supply in cities,natural gas station has certain risks in the operation process.Based on the leakage of natural gas stations caused by fire,explosion and other accidents and disasters,with regard to the analysis of the selection of existing gas-related laws,regulations,standards,and other indicators,and the full reference and analysis of the existing research results at home and abroad,the framework structure of natural gas station explosion risk assessment index system was formed with the aim of natural gas station explosion,4 primary indexes such as staff,organization and management,failure and ignition source,14 secondary indexes and 46 tertiary indexes.The reliability and validity of the index system were evaluated by using research questionnaires and statistical analysis software to quantitatively analyze the explosion index system.The fuzzy hierarchical analysis process was applied to calculate the weights of each index of the assessment index system to establish a risk assessment model for natural gas stations,a natural gas station in Shaanxi Province was used as the object of the risk assessment of explosion,to evaluate the risk and verify the effective practicality of the proposed mathematical model,providing a basis for the prevention,control and safety management of natural gas field stations in terms of flaring and explosion accidents.