基于HFACS模型的城轨列车延误风险致因研究

Research on causes of urban rail delay risk based on HFACS model

为探究城轨列车(UR)延误风险致因因素,找出关键因素,揭示城轨延误致因机制,首先在人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)方法的基础上构建适合分析UR延误的HFACS-UR模型;然后从不安全行为、不安全行为前提、不安全监督、组织影响4个层面展开UR延误致因分析,并采用Pearson相关系数法分析因素间的相关关系;最后提出预防UR延误的对策。结果表明:不安全行为集中于技能差错、决策差错;不安全行为前提主要表现在个人技能不熟和汇报沟通不恰当;不安全监督主要体现在监督不充分以及运行计划不恰当;组织影响涉及组织过程和资源管理,具体表现在标准规章、应急流程以及人员培训不完善。

In order to explore the causes of UR train delays and find out the key factors causing delays,firstly,an HFACS-UR model based on HFACS method was proposed for analyzing UR train delay.Secondly,the causes analysis of UR trains delay was carried out from four aspects:unsafe acts,preconditions for unsafe acts,unsafe supervision and organizational influences.Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the correlation between factors.Finally,prevention suggestions for UR train delays were proposed.The results show that unsafe behaviors focus on skill errors and decision-making errors.The premise of unsafe behavior is mainly manifested in the lack of personal skills and improper reporting and communication.Unsafety supervision is mainly reflected in inadequate supervision and improper operation plan.The organizational impact involves the organizational process and resource management,which is reflected in the imperfect standard regulations,emergency procedures and personnel training.