减排背景下北极东北航线船舶航速多目标优化

Multi-objective optimization of ship speed on Arctic northeast route under background of emission reduction

为控制成本、缩短航期,在考虑硫排放控制区(sulphur emission control area,SECA)、航海碳税等减排政策和北极东北航线气象因素的基础上,建立北极东北航线船舶航速多目标优化模型。通过带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法(elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm,NSGA-Ⅱ)求得针对航运成本和航行时间的帕累托解集,然后采用灰色关联度分析法从帕累托解集中筛选出最佳折中解。选用实船数据进行案例计算,结果表明:运用NSGA-Ⅱ-灰色关联度分析法可以有效地计算出模型的折中解;减排背景下,除有冰航段外,船舶在SECA内外采取不同航速,有利于实现航运成本与航行时间的平衡;降低航海碳税或破冰费有利于加快中欧北极东北航线商业通航的进程。

In order to control the cost and shorten the voyage time,a multi-objective optimization model of ship speed on the Arctic northeast route is established based on the consideration of the emission reduction policies(such as the sulphur emission control area(SECA)and the navigation carbon tax)and the meteorological factor of the Arctic northeast route.The Pareto solution set for shipping cost and sailing time is obtained by the elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm(NSGA-Ⅱ),and the optimal compromise solution is screened from the Pareto solution set by the grey relational analysis.Real ship data is selected for case calculation,and the results show that:NSGA-Ⅱ-grey relational analysis method can effectively calculate the compromise solution of the model;under the background of emission reduction,it is conducive to the balance of shipping cost and sailing time that ships adopt different speed in and out of SECA except for the ice passage;lowering the carbon tax or ice breaking fee for navigation helps speed up the process of commercial navigation on the Arctic northeast route between China and Europe.